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Sparta Nijkerk vs Ter Leede — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Ter Leede
Ter Leede
4/5/2022Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Zaterdag - 22Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk59%
×Draw20%
Ter Leede22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Nijkerk
2.33
Ter Leede
1.37

Sparta Nijkerk creates 70% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk
2.29
Ter Leede
1.53

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk
1.21
Ter Leede
2.36

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par
Ter Leede+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

Ter Leede →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw
78%
Sparta Nijkerk or Ter Leede
80%
Draw or Ter Leede
41%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
37%
Ter Leede wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
90%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
67%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
41%
Ter Leede 1+ goals
75%
Ter Leede 2+ goals
40%
Ter Leede 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
73%
Ter Leede (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Ter Leede away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.36 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + Ter Leede defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ter Leede attack 1.53 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more
59%
level
20%
Ter Leede scores more
22%

Sparta Nijkerk at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Nijkerk vs Ter Leede

Sparta Nijkerk beat Ter Leede 3-0 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on April 5, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst in Nijkerk.