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Sparta Nijkerk vs Harkemase Boys — Derde Divisie - Saturday 2019

Sparta Nijkerk
Sparta Nijkerk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Harkemase Boys
Harkemase Boys
11/9/2024Derde Divisie - SaturdayDerde Divisie - Saturday · Girone A - 12Sportpark De Ebbenhorst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Sparta Nijkerk49%
×Draw22%
Harkemase Boys29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Nijkerk
1.94
Harkemase Boys
1.44

Sparta Nijkerk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 98 away

creates per match

Sparta Nijkerk
2.29
Harkemase Boys
1.68

allows per match

Sparta Nijkerk
1.21
Harkemase Boys
1.59

finishing

Sparta Nijkerk+0.00on par
Harkemase Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Nijkerk ↓

Harkemase Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sparta Nijkerk or draw
71%
Sparta Nijkerk or Harkemase Boys
78%
Draw or Harkemase Boys
51%

Winning margin

Sparta Nijkerk wins by 2+
28%
Harkemase Boys wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sparta Nijkerk 1+ goals
86%
Sparta Nijkerk 2+ goals
58%
Sparta Nijkerk 3+ goals
30%
Harkemase Boys 1+ goals
76%
Harkemase Boys 2+ goals
42%
Harkemase Boys 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sparta Nijkerk (draw refunded)
63%
Harkemase Boys (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Nijkerk at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

Harkemase Boys away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Nijkerk attack 2.29 + Harkemase Boys defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.94

Harkemase Boys attack 1.68 + Sparta Nijkerk defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sparta Nijkerk scores more
49%
level
22%
Harkemase Boys scores more
29%

Sparta Nijkerk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sparta Nijkerk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Saturday: Sparta Nijkerk 2–1 Harkemase Boys

Sparta Nijkerk beat Harkemase Boys 2-1 in Derde Divisie - Saturday on November 9, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Ebbenhorst in Nijkerk.