Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sparta Lichtenberg vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
10/6/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 8Rasenplatz Fischerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sparta Lichtenberg48%
×Draw20%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.33
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.88

Sparta Lichtenberg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 76 away

creates per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
3.23
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.75

allows per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.00
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.43

finishing

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par
Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Lichtenberg ↓

Eintracht Mahlsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sparta Lichtenberg or draw
68%
Sparta Lichtenberg or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
80%
Draw or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
52%

Winning margin

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
29%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
90%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
67%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
41%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
85%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
56%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
60%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Lichtenberg at home — creates 3.23, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 3.23 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.33

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
48%
level
20%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
32%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Sparta Lichtenberg 3–2 Eintracht Mahlsdorf

Sparta Lichtenberg beat Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Rasenplatz Fischerstraße in Berlin.