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Sparta Lichtenberg vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
CANC
12:00
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
6/8/2024Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 30Rasenplatz Fischerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sparta Lichtenberg54%
×Draw20%
CFC Hertha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.42
CFC Hertha
1.65

Sparta Lichtenberg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
3.23
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.00
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Lichtenberg ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Sparta Lichtenberg or draw
74%
Sparta Lichtenberg or CFC Hertha
80%
Draw or CFC Hertha
46%

Winning margin

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
34%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
91%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
69%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
43%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
81%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
49%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
68%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Lichtenberg at home — creates 3.23, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 3.23 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.42

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
54%
level
20%
CFC Hertha scores more
26%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sparta Lichtenberg face CFC Hertha (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with Sparta Lichtenberg hosting CFC Hertha. Match starts June 8, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sparta Lichtenberg host CFC Hertha at Rasenplatz Fischerstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.