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Sparta Lichtenberg vs Anker Wismar — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Sparta Lichtenberg
Sparta Lichtenberg
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Anker Wismar
Anker Wismar
11/9/2025Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 12Kunstrasenplatz Fischerstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Sparta Lichtenberg58%
×Draw18%
Anker Wismar24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.75
Anker Wismar
1.76

Sparta Lichtenberg creates 56% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
3.23
Anker Wismar
1.52

allows per match

Sparta Lichtenberg
2.00
Anker Wismar
2.27

finishing

Sparta Lichtenberg+0.00on par
Anker Wismar+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Lichtenberg ↓

Anker Wismar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Sparta Lichtenberg or draw
76%
Sparta Lichtenberg or Anker Wismar
82%
Draw or Anker Wismar
42%

Winning margin

Sparta Lichtenberg wins by 2+
38%
Anker Wismar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sparta Lichtenberg 1+ goals
93%
Sparta Lichtenberg 2+ goals
75%
Sparta Lichtenberg 3+ goals
51%
Anker Wismar 1+ goals
83%
Anker Wismar 2+ goals
52%
Anker Wismar 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sparta Lichtenberg (draw refunded)
71%
Anker Wismar (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Lichtenberg at home — creates 3.23, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Anker Wismar away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.27 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Lichtenberg attack 3.23 + Anker Wismar defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.75

Anker Wismar attack 1.52 + Sparta Lichtenberg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sparta Lichtenberg scores more
58%
level
18%
Anker Wismar scores more
24%

Sparta Lichtenberg at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sparta Lichtenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sparta Lichtenberg vs Anker Wismar

Sparta Lichtenberg beat Anker Wismar 5-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on November 9, 2025.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Fischerstraße in Berlin.