Sparta Kutná Hora vs Sokol Libiš

Sparta Kutná Hora

PST

15:00

Sokol Libiš

5/24/2020

4. liga - Divizie C · Round 27Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora (Kutná Hora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora55%

×Draw20%

Sokol Libiš25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Kutná HoraExpected goals in this matchSokol Libiš

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.50

Sparta Kutná Hora

2.29

Sokol Libiš

1.50

Sparta Kutná Hora creates 53% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.54

creates per match

1.12

1.88

allows per match

3.04

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.54

Sokol Libiš

1.12

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.88

Sokol Libiš

3.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Sokol Libiš →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw

75%

Sparta Kutná Hora or Sokol Libiš

80%

Draw or Sokol Libiš

45%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+

34%

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals

90%

Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals

66%

Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals

40%

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals

78%

Sokol Libiš 2+ goals

44%

Sokol Libiš 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)

69%

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Sokol Libiš away — creates 1.12, concedes 3.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Sokol Libiš defence 3.04 → ÷2 → 2.29

Sokol Libiš attack 1.12 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more

55%

level

20%

Sokol Libiš scores more

25%

Sparta Kutná Hora at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sparta Kutná Hora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff