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Sokol Libiš vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
CANC
13:00
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
4/17/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 12UMT Kyje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sokol Libiš71%
×Draw15%
Sparta Kutná Hora14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
3.03
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.29

Sokol Libiš creates 135% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 27 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
2.12
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
1.50
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
86%
Sokol Libiš or Sparta Kutná Hora
85%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
29%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
52%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
95%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
80%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
57%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
72%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
37%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
84%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 2.12 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 3.03

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Sokol Libiš defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
71%
level
15%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
14%

Sokol Libiš at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sokol Libiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Libiš face Sparta Kutná Hora (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Sokol Libiš hosting Sparta Kutná Hora. Match starts April 17, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sokol Libiš host Sparta Kutná Hora at UMT Kyje.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.