Sparta Kutná Hora 1–2 Poříčany: Result & Stats

Sparta Kutná Hora

FT

1 – 2

Poříčany

8/7/2021

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 2Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora55%

×Draw21%

Poříčany25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Kutná HoraExpected goals in this matchPoříčany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

1.40

Sparta Kutná Hora

2.16

Poříčany

1.40

Sparta Kutná Hora creates 54% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

1.54

creates per match

0.92

1.88

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.54

Poříčany

0.92

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.88

Poříčany

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Poříčany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Poříčany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw

75%

Sparta Kutná Hora or Poříčany

79%

Draw or Poříčany

45%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+

33%

Poříčany wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals

88%

Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals

63%

Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals

36%

Poříčany 1+ goals

75%

Poříčany 2+ goals

41%

Poříčany 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)

69%

Poříčany (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Poříčany away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Poříčany defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.16

Poříčany attack 0.92 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more

55%

level

21%

Poříčany scores more

25%

Sparta Kutná Hora at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sparta Kutná Hora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff