Sparta Kutná Hora vs Horky nad Jizerou

Sparta Kutná Hora

PST

14:30

Horky nad Jizerou

4/12/2020

4. liga - Divizie C · Round 21Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora (Kutná Hora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora53%

×Draw21%

Horky nad Jizerou26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Kutná HoraExpected goals in this matchHorky nad Jizerou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.42

Sparta Kutná Hora

2.09

Horky nad Jizerou

1.42

Sparta Kutná Hora creates 47% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 25 away

1.54

creates per match

0.96

1.88

allows per match

2.64

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.54

Horky nad Jizerou

0.96

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.88

Horky nad Jizerou

2.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw

74%

Sparta Kutná Hora or Horky nad Jizerou

79%

Draw or Horky nad Jizerou

47%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+

31%

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals

88%

Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals

62%

Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals

34%

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

76%

Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

41%

Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)

67%

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.09

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more

53%

level

21%

Horky nad Jizerou scores more

26%

Sparta Kutná Hora at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sparta Kutná Hora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff