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Horky nad Jizerou vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
CANC
15:00
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
6/12/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 28Hřiště FC Horky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou70%
×Draw15%
Sparta Kutná Hora15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horky nad Jizerou
2.99
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.35

Horky nad Jizerou creates 121% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou
2.04
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou
1.64
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw
85%
Horky nad Jizerou or Sparta Kutná Hora
85%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
30%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
50%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
95%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
79%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
56%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
74%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
39%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
82%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.99

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more
70%
level
15%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
15%

Horky nad Jizerou at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Horky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Horky nad Jizerou vs Sparta Kutná Hora — Match Preview

Horky nad Jizerou face Sparta Kutná Hora on June 12, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Horky nad Jizerou host Sparta Kutná Hora at Hřiště FC Horky.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.