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Sparta Kutná Hora vs Dvůr Králové — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
PST
15:00
Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
6/7/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 29Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora (Kutná Hora)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora47%
×Draw22%
Dvůr Králové30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.91
Dvůr Králové
1.49

Sparta Kutná Hora creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 40 away

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.54
Dvůr Králové
1.10

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora
1.88
Dvůr Králové
2.27

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par
Dvůr Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Dvůr Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw
70%
Sparta Kutná Hora or Dvůr Králové
78%
Draw or Dvůr Králové
53%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
26%
Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
85%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
57%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
30%
Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
77%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
44%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
61%
Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Dvůr Králové away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Dvůr Králové defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.91

Dvůr Králové attack 1.10 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
47%
level
22%
Dvůr Králové scores more
30%

Sparta Kutná Hora at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sparta Kutná Hora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sparta Kutná Hora host Dvůr Králové

June 7, 2020: Sparta Kutná Hora take on Dvůr Králové in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sparta Kutná Hora host Dvůr Králové at Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora (Kutná Hora).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.