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Dvůr Králové vs Sparta Kutná Hora — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
CANC
15:00
Sparta Kutná Hora
Sparta Kutná Hora
5/2/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 14UMT Vrchlabí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dvůr Králové67%
×Draw16%
Sparta Kutná Hora16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dvůr Králové
2.82
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.34

Dvůr Králové creates 110% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 27 away

creates per match

Dvůr Králové
1.71
Sparta Kutná Hora
1.07

allows per match

Dvůr Králové
1.61
Sparta Kutná Hora
3.93

finishing

Dvůr Králové+0.00on par
Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dvůr Králové ↓

Sparta Kutná Hora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Dvůr Králové or draw
84%
Dvůr Králové or Sparta Kutná Hora
84%
Draw or Sparta Kutná Hora
33%

Winning margin

Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
47%
Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
94%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
77%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
52%
Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals
74%
Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals
39%
Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
81%
Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dvůr Králové at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.61 · 38 matches

Sparta Kutná Hora away — creates 1.07, concedes 3.93 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dvůr Králové attack 1.71 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 3.93 → ÷2 → 2.82

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.07 + Dvůr Králové defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Dvůr Králové scores more
67%
level
16%
Sparta Kutná Hora scores more
16%

Dvůr Králové at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dvůr Králové will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Dvůr Králové face Sparta Kutná Hora (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Dvůr Králové hosting Sparta Kutná Hora. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Dvůr Králové host Sparta Kutná Hora at UMT Vrchlabí.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.