Sparta Kutná Hora vs Benátky nad Jizerou

Sparta Kutná Hora

CANC

08:15

Benátky nad Jizerou

4/24/2021

4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 21Stadión Sparta ČKD Kutná Hora

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Sparta Kutná Hora30%

×Draw23%

Benátky nad Jizerou47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta Kutná HoraExpected goals in this matchBenátky nad Jizerou

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.79

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.40

Benátky nad Jizerou

1.79

Benátky nad Jizerou creates 28% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 55 away

1.54

creates per match

1.71

1.88

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.54

Benátky nad Jizerou

1.71

allows per match

Sparta Kutná Hora

1.88

Benátky nad Jizerou

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Kutná Hora+0.00on par

Benátky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Kutná Hora ↓

Benátky nad Jizerou →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Sparta Kutná Hora or draw

53%

Sparta Kutná Hora or Benátky nad Jizerou

77%

Draw or Benátky nad Jizerou

70%

Winning margin

Sparta Kutná Hora wins by 2+

13%

Benátky nad Jizerou wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Sparta Kutná Hora 1+ goals

75%

Sparta Kutná Hora 2+ goals

41%

Sparta Kutná Hora 3+ goals

17%

Benátky nad Jizerou 1+ goals

83%

Benátky nad Jizerou 2+ goals

53%

Benátky nad Jizerou 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sparta Kutná Hora (draw refunded)

39%

Benátky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Kutná Hora at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.88 · 24 matches

Benátky nad Jizerou away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Kutná Hora attack 1.54 + Benátky nad Jizerou defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Benátky nad Jizerou attack 1.71 + Sparta Kutná Hora defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sparta Kutná Hora scores more

30%

level

23%

Benátky nad Jizerou scores more

47%

Benátky nad Jizerou at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Benátky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff