Spal 5–0 Pordenone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spal

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Pordenone

E. Latte Lath 75'

F. Viviani 69'

E. Capradossi 45+3'

L. Colombo 37'

M. Mancosu 18'

8/29/2021

Serie B · Round 2Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spal47%

×Draw26%

Pordenone27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpalExpected goals in this matchPordenone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.06

Spal

1.50

Pordenone

1.06

Spal creates 42% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 58 away

1.44

creates per match

0.81

1.31

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Spal

1.44

Pordenone

0.81

allows per match

Spal

1.31

Pordenone

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spal+0.00on par

Pordenone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Pordenone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Spal or draw

73%

Spal or Pordenone

74%

Draw or Pordenone

53%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+

24%

Pordenone wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals

78%

Spal 2+ goals

44%

Spal 3+ goals

19%

Pordenone 1+ goals

65%

Pordenone 2+ goals

29%

Pordenone 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)

64%

Pordenone (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

Pordenone away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.57 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 1.44 + Pordenone defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Pordenone attack 0.81 + Spal defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Spal scores more

47%

level

26%

Pordenone scores more

27%

Spal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Spal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

F. Viviani

Spal · M

9.5

Match Events

13'

Michele Camporese

18'

M. Mancosu↳ L. D'Orazio

19'

M. Stefani← J. Pellegrini

37'

L. Colombo

44'

Luca Magnino

45+3'

E. Capradossi↳ F. Viviani

57'

Demba Seck

65'

M. Ellertsson← D. Seck

65'

E. Latte Lath← L. DOrazio

66'

D. Mensah← M. Folorunsho

66'

K. Biondi← F. Valietti

69'

F. Viviani↳ Salvatore Esposito

75'

E. Latte Lath↳ M. Mancosu

80'

R. Spaltro← A. Tripaldelli

80'

J. Da Riva← L. Colombo

80'

R. Zammarini← T. Kupisz

80'

K. Butić← F. Tsadjout

82'

Jacopo Da Riva

85'

L. Mora← F. Viviani

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpalPordenone

Overview

63%Possession37%

30Total Shots6

9Corners3

12Fouls7

Shots

30Total Shots6

13On Target0

12Off Target4

5Blocked2

16Inside Box4

14Outside Box2

Passing

63%Possession37%

535Total Passes305

477Accurate Passes232

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves9

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2