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Spal vs Nuova Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Spal
Spal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
10/3/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 2Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Spal46%
×Draw26%
Nuova Cosenza28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spal
1.49
Nuova Cosenza
1.10

Spal creates 35% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 134 away

creates per match

Spal
1.44
Nuova Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Spal
1.31
Nuova Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Spal+0.00on par
Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Nuova Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spal or draw
72%
Spal or Nuova Cosenza
74%
Draw or Nuova Cosenza
54%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+
23%
Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals
77%
Spal 2+ goals
44%
Spal 3+ goals
19%
Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
67%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
30%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)
62%
Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.31 · 59 matches

Nuova Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 1.44 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.49

Nuova Cosenza attack 0.90 + Spal defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spal scores more
46%
level
26%
Nuova Cosenza scores more
28%

Spal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spal vs Nuova Cosenza

Spal and Nuova Cosenza drew 1-1 in Serie B on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.