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Nuova Cosenza vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Nuova Cosenza
Nuova Cosenza
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
3/12/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 29Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Nuova Cosenza40%
×Draw29%
Spal31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nuova Cosenza
1.17
Spal
1.00

Nuova Cosenza creates 17% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 60 away

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.06
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza
1.07
Spal
1.27

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw
69%
Nuova Cosenza or Spal
71%
Draw or Spal
60%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+
17%
Spal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals
69%
Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals
33%
Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals
11%
Spal 1+ goals
63%
Spal 2+ goals
26%
Spal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)
56%
Spal (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Spal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Spal attack 0.92 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more
40%
level
29%
Spal scores more
31%

Nuova Cosenza at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nuova Cosenza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nuova Cosenza vs Spal

Nuova Cosenza beat Spal 1-0 in Serie B on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Cosenza.