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Spal vs Inter — Serie A 2018

Spal
Spal
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Inter
Inter
7/16/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 33Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Spal20%
×Draw23%
Inter57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spal
0.99
Inter
1.82

Inter creates 84% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 136 away

creates per match

Spal
0.95
Inter
1.90

allows per match

Spal
1.74
Inter
1.03

finishing

Spal+0.00on par
Inter+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spal or draw
43%
Spal or Inter
77%
Draw or Inter
80%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+
7%
Inter wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals
63%
Spal 2+ goals
26%
Spal 3+ goals
8%
Inter 1+ goals
84%
Inter 2+ goals
54%
Inter 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)
26%
Inter (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.74 · 38 matches

Inter away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.03 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 0.95 + Inter defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.99

Inter attack 1.90 + Spal defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spal scores more
20%
level
23%
Inter scores more
57%

Inter at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spal vs Inter

Inter beat Spal 4-0 in Serie A on July 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.