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Spal vs Crotone — Serie B 2018

Spal
Spal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Crotone
Crotone
4/18/2022Serie BSerie B · Round 35Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Spal43%
×Draw26%
Crotone31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spal
1.47
Crotone
1.22

Spal creates 20% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 56 away

creates per match

Spal
1.40
Crotone
1.14

allows per match

Spal
1.30
Crotone
1.54

finishing

Spal+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spal or draw
69%
Spal or Crotone
74%
Draw or Crotone
57%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+
21%
Crotone wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals
77%
Spal 2+ goals
43%
Spal 3+ goals
18%
Crotone 1+ goals
70%
Crotone 2+ goals
34%
Crotone 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)
58%
Crotone (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.30 · 57 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.54 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 1.40 + Crotone defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.47

Crotone attack 1.14 + Spal defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spal scores more
43%
level
26%
Crotone scores more
31%

Spal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spal 1 – 1 Crotone

Spal and Crotone drew 1-1 in Serie B on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.