Spal 1–0 Cittadella: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cittadella

S. Floccari 46'

3/20/2021

Serie B · Round 30Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Spal41%

×Draw28%

Cittadella31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpalExpected goals in this matchCittadella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.10

Spal

1.30

Cittadella

1.10

Spal creates 18% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 134 away

1.41

creates per match

0.92

1.29

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Spal

1.41

Cittadella

0.92

allows per match

Spal

1.29

Cittadella

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spal+0.00on par

Cittadella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spal ↓

Cittadella →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spal or draw

69%

Spal or Cittadella

72%

Draw or Cittadella

59%

Winning margin

Spal wins by 2+

19%

Cittadella wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Spal 1+ goals

73%

Spal 2+ goals

37%

Spal 3+ goals

14%

Cittadella 1+ goals

67%

Cittadella 2+ goals

30%

Cittadella 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spal (draw refunded)

57%

Cittadella (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spal at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

Cittadella away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spal attack 1.41 + Cittadella defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Cittadella attack 0.92 + Spal defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spal scores more

41%

level

28%

Cittadella scores more

31%

Spal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Berisha

Spal · G

7.9

Match Events

11'

Federico Proia

46'

S. Missiroli← Salvatore Esposito

46'

M. Sala← L. Dickmann

46'

S. Floccari↳ L. Ranieri

60'

M. Iori← F. Proia

60'

G. Beretta← M. Gargiulo

75'

M. Rosafio← E. Baldini

80'

N. Tomović← F. Vicari

83'

N. Pavan← C. DUrso

85'

Giacomo Beretta

86'

M. Tumminello← S. Floccari

89'

A. Murgia← J. Segre

90'

Mattia Valoti

90'

Luca Mora

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpalCittadella

Overview

42%Possession58%

6Total Shots16

2Corners6

16Fouls18

Shots

6Total Shots16

2On Target3

3Off Target8

1Blocked5

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

331Total Passes427

231Accurate Passes316

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4