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SPAL U19 vs Parma U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

SPAL U19
SPAL U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Parma U19
Parma U19
12/16/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 12Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SPAL U1930%
×Draw25%
Parma U1945%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SPAL U19
1.21
Parma U19
1.54

Parma U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 70 away

creates per match

SPAL U19
1.40
Parma U19
2.00

allows per match

SPAL U19
1.07
Parma U19
1.03

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par
Parma U19+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

Parma U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw
55%
SPAL U19 or Parma U19
75%
Draw or Parma U19
70%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+
12%
Parma U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals
70%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
34%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
12%
Parma U19 1+ goals
79%
Parma U19 2+ goals
45%
Parma U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Parma U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Parma U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.03 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.40 + Parma U19 defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Parma U19 attack 2.00 + SPAL U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

SPAL U19 scores more
30%
level
25%
Parma U19 scores more
45%

Parma U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Parma U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: SPAL U19 2–1 Parma U19

SPAL U19 beat Parma U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri in Ferrara.