SPAL U19 1–1 Padova U19: Result & Stats

SPAL U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Padova U19

2/3/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 17Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SPAL U1950%

×Draw25%

Padova U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPAL U19Expected goals in this matchPadova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.02

SPAL U19

1.57

Padova U19

1.02

SPAL U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 61 away

1.40

creates per match

0.98

1.07

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

SPAL U19

1.40

Padova U19

0.98

allows per match

SPAL U19

1.07

Padova U19

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par

Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

Padova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw

75%

SPAL U19 or Padova U19

75%

Draw or Padova U19

50%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+

26%

Padova U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals

79%

SPAL U19 2+ goals

46%

SPAL U19 3+ goals

21%

Padova U19 1+ goals

64%

Padova U19 2+ goals

27%

Padova U19 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Padova U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.40 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.57

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + SPAL U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SPAL U19 scores more

50%

level

25%

Padova U19 scores more

25%

SPAL U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SPAL U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff