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SPAL U19 vs FeralpiSalò U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

SPAL U19
SPAL U19
FT
1 – 0
FeralpiSalò U19
FeralpiSalò U19
3/16/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 23Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SPAL U1956%
×Draw23%
FeralpiSalò U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SPAL U19
1.76
FeralpiSalò U19
0.96

SPAL U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 46 away

creates per match

SPAL U19
1.40
FeralpiSalò U19
0.85

allows per match

SPAL U19
1.07
FeralpiSalò U19
2.13

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par
FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

FeralpiSalò U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw
80%
SPAL U19 or FeralpiSalò U19
77%
Draw or FeralpiSalò U19
44%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+
31%
FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals
83%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
52%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
26%
FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals
62%
FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals
25%
FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
73%
FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

FeralpiSalò U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.40 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.76

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 0.85 + SPAL U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SPAL U19 scores more
56%
level
23%
FeralpiSalò U19 scores more
20%

SPAL U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SPAL U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: SPAL U19 1–0 FeralpiSalò U19

SPAL U19 beat FeralpiSalò U19 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri in Ferrara.