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SPAL U19 vs Cremonese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

SPAL U19
SPAL U19
FT
0 – 0
Cremonese U19
Cremonese U19
2/25/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 20Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

SPAL U1928%
×Draw26%
Cremonese U1947%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SPAL U19
1.11
Cremonese U19
1.52

Cremonese U19 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 55 away

creates per match

SPAL U19
1.40
Cremonese U19
1.96

allows per match

SPAL U19
1.07
Cremonese U19
0.82

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par
Cremonese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

Cremonese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw
53%
SPAL U19 or Cremonese U19
74%
Draw or Cremonese U19
72%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+
11%
Cremonese U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals
67%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
30%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
10%
Cremonese U19 1+ goals
78%
Cremonese U19 2+ goals
45%
Cremonese U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
37%
Cremonese U19 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 45 matches

Cremonese U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 0.82 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.40 + Cremonese U19 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cremonese U19 attack 1.96 + SPAL U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SPAL U19 scores more
28%
level
26%
Cremonese U19 scores more
47%

Cremonese U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Cremonese U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: SPAL U19 0–0 Cremonese U19

SPAL U19 and Cremonese U19 drew 0-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Giovan Battista Fabbri in Ferrara.