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SPAL U19 vs Atalanta U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

SPAL U19
SPAL U19
FT
1 – 2
Atalanta U19
Atalanta U19
6/4/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 27Stadio Paolo Mazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

SPAL U1932%
×Draw24%
Atalanta U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SPAL U19
1.34
Atalanta U19
1.59

Atalanta U19 creates 19% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 68 away

creates per match

SPAL U19
1.19
Atalanta U19
1.66

allows per match

SPAL U19
1.53
Atalanta U19
1.49

finishing

SPAL U19+0.00on par
Atalanta U19+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SPAL U19 ↓

Atalanta U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

SPAL U19 or draw
57%
SPAL U19 or Atalanta U19
76%
Draw or Atalanta U19
68%

Winning margin

SPAL U19 wins by 2+
14%
Atalanta U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SPAL U19 1+ goals
74%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
39%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
15%
Atalanta U19 1+ goals
80%
Atalanta U19 2+ goals
47%
Atalanta U19 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
43%
Atalanta U19 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SPAL U19 at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.53 · 32 matches

Atalanta U19 away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.49 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SPAL U19 attack 1.19 + Atalanta U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Atalanta U19 attack 1.66 + SPAL U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SPAL U19 scores more
32%
level
24%
Atalanta U19 scores more
43%

Atalanta U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Atalanta U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: SPAL U19 1–2 Atalanta U19

Atalanta U19 beat SPAL U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on June 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Paolo Mazza in Ferrara.