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Spakenburg vs SVV Scheveningen — Tweede Divisie 2019

Spakenburg
Spakenburg
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SVV Scheveningen
SVV Scheveningen
4/19/2025Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 30Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Spakenburg52%
×Draw23%
SVV Scheveningen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spakenburg
1.81
SVV Scheveningen
1.19

Spakenburg creates 52% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 83 away

creates per match

Spakenburg
2.10
SVV Scheveningen
1.12

allows per match

Spakenburg
1.26
SVV Scheveningen
1.52

finishing

Spakenburg+0.00on par
SVV Scheveningen+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spakenburg ↓

SVV Scheveningen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spakenburg or draw
75%
Spakenburg or SVV Scheveningen
77%
Draw or SVV Scheveningen
48%

Winning margin

Spakenburg wins by 2+
29%
SVV Scheveningen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spakenburg 1+ goals
84%
Spakenburg 2+ goals
54%
Spakenburg 3+ goals
27%
SVV Scheveningen 1+ goals
70%
SVV Scheveningen 2+ goals
33%
SVV Scheveningen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spakenburg (draw refunded)
67%
SVV Scheveningen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spakenburg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

SVV Scheveningen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.52 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spakenburg attack 2.10 + SVV Scheveningen defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.81

SVV Scheveningen attack 1.12 + Spakenburg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spakenburg scores more
52%
level
23%
SVV Scheveningen scores more
25%

Spakenburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spakenburg vs SVV Scheveningen

Spakenburg beat SVV Scheveningen 1-0 in Tweede Divisie on April 19, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Bunschoten.