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Spakenburg vs Koninklijke HFC — Tweede Divisie 2019

Spakenburg
Spakenburg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Koninklijke HFC
Koninklijke HFC
1/27/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 20Sportpark De Westmaat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Spakenburg50%
×Draw23%
Koninklijke HFC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spakenburg
1.83
Koninklijke HFC
1.30

Spakenburg creates 41% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 99 away

creates per match

Spakenburg
2.10
Koninklijke HFC
1.34

allows per match

Spakenburg
1.26
Koninklijke HFC
1.57

finishing

Spakenburg+0.00on par
Koninklijke HFC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spakenburg ↓

Koninklijke HFC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Spakenburg or draw
73%
Spakenburg or Koninklijke HFC
77%
Draw or Koninklijke HFC
50%

Winning margin

Spakenburg wins by 2+
28%
Koninklijke HFC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spakenburg 1+ goals
84%
Spakenburg 2+ goals
54%
Spakenburg 3+ goals
28%
Koninklijke HFC 1+ goals
73%
Koninklijke HFC 2+ goals
37%
Koninklijke HFC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spakenburg (draw refunded)
65%
Koninklijke HFC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spakenburg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.26 · 99 matches

Koninklijke HFC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.57 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spakenburg attack 2.10 + Koninklijke HFC defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.83

Koninklijke HFC attack 1.34 + Spakenburg defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spakenburg scores more
50%
level
23%
Koninklijke HFC scores more
27%

Spakenburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spakenburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tweede Divisie: Spakenburg 2–1 Koninklijke HFC

Spakenburg beat Koninklijke HFC 2-1 in Tweede Divisie on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Westmaat in Bunschoten.