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Spain W vs Japan W — Friendlies Women 2026

Spain W
Spain W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Japan W
Japan W
6/27/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · FriendliesEstadio Municipal de Butarque

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Spain W72%
×Draw17%
Japan W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain W
2.45
Japan W
0.85

Spain W creates 188% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Spain W
3.24
Japan W
1.35

allows per match

Spain W
0.35
Japan W
1.65

finishing

Spain W+0.00on par
Japan W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain W ↓

Japan W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Spain W or draw
89%
Spain W or Japan W
83%
Draw or Japan W
28%

Winning margin

Spain W wins by 2+
50%
Japan W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spain W 1+ goals
91%
Spain W 2+ goals
70%
Spain W 3+ goals
44%
Japan W 1+ goals
57%
Japan W 2+ goals
21%
Japan W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spain W (draw refunded)
87%
Japan W (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain W at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.35 · 17 matches

Japan W away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain W attack 3.24 + Japan W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 2.45

Japan W attack 1.35 + Spain W defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Spain W scores more
72%
level
17%
Japan W scores more
11%

Spain W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Spain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spain W vs Japan W

Spain W beat Japan W 3-1 in Friendlies Women on June 27, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Butarque in Leganes.