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Spain vs Serbia — Friendlies 2026

Spain
Spain
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Serbia
Serbia
V. Munoz 72'
M. Oyarzabal 43', 16'
3/27/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalEstadio de la Ceramica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spain62%
×Draw21%
Serbia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain
1.99
Serbia
0.94

Spain creates 112% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

Spain
2.57
Serbia
1.24

allows per match

Spain
0.64
Serbia
1.41

finishing

Spain+0.00on par
Serbia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Serbia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Spain or draw
83%
Spain or Serbia
79%
Draw or Serbia
38%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+
37%
Serbia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals
86%
Spain 2+ goals
59%
Spain 3+ goals
32%
Serbia 1+ goals
61%
Serbia 2+ goals
24%
Serbia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)
78%
Serbia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Serbia away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.57 + Serbia defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.99

Serbia attack 1.24 + Spain defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spain scores more
62%
level
21%
Serbia scores more
17%

Spain at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. OyarzabalSpainSpain · F
8.7

Match Events

16'
M. Oyarzabal↳ Fermin
43'
M. Oyarzabal↳ P. Cubarsi
46'
D. Olmo← Pedri
46'
P. Fornals← Fermín
60'
M. Gacinovic← F. Kostic
60'
L. Jovic← A. Mitrovic
60'
S. Lukic← N. Gudelj
60'
L. Samardzic← V. Birmancevic
63'
F. Torres← Lamine Yamal
63'
V. Munoz← M. Oyarzabal
72'
V. Munoz↳ F. Torres
76'
S. Bukinac← A. Terzic
76'
D. Joveljic← A. Stankovic
77'
Y. Pino← A. Baena
77'
M. Zubimendi← Rodri
83'
C. Mosquera← P. Cubarsi
83'
K. Nedeljkovic← O. Mimovic
83'
S. Erakovic← S. Pavlovic

Possession

71%Spain

Shots

14Spain

Pass accuracy

53%Spain

Statistics

SpainSerbia
Overview
71%Possession29%
14Total Shots2
5Corners1
14Fouls2
Shots
14Total Shots2
8On Target2
4Off Target0
2Blocked0
10Inside Box2
4Outside Box0
Passing
71%Possession29%
796Total Passes313
741Accurate Passes252
93%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Spain vs Serbia

Spain beat Serbia 3-0 in Friendlies on March 27, 2026.

Goals: M. Oyarzabal (16', 43'), V. Munoz (72').

Spain controlled possession (71%) and registered 14 shots to 2.

The match was played at Estadio de la Ceramica in Villarreal.