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Spain vs Poland — Euro Championship 2024

Spain
Spain
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Poland
Poland
Morata 25'
R. Lewandowski 54'
6/19/2021Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Group E - 2Estadio Olímpico de Sevilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Spain60%
×Draw23%
Poland17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain
1.77
Poland
0.83

Spain creates 113% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Spain
2.64
Poland
1.30

allows per match

Spain
0.36
Poland
0.90

finishing

Spain+0.00on par
Poland+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Poland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spain or draw
83%
Spain or Poland
77%
Draw or Poland
40%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+
34%
Poland wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals
83%
Spain 2+ goals
53%
Spain 3+ goals
26%
Poland 1+ goals
56%
Poland 2+ goals
20%
Poland 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)
78%
Poland (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Poland away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.64 + Poland defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.77

Poland attack 1.30 + Spain defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Spain scores more
60%
level
23%
Poland scores more
17%

Spain at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
Jordi AlbaSpainSpain · D
7.3

Match Events

25'
Morata↳ Gerard Moreno
36'
M. Klich
54'
R. Lewandowski↳ K. Jóźwiak
55'
K. Kozłowski← M. Klich
57'
J. Moder
59'
K. Jozwiak
61'
Ferran Torres← Daniel Olmo
68'
Fabián Ruiz← Gerard Moreno
68'
Pablo Sarabia← Koke
68'
P. Frankowski← K. Świderski
81'
P. Torres
85'
P. Dawidowicz← J. Bednarek
85'
K. Linetty← J. Moder
87'
Mikel Oyarzabal← Morata
90+3'
R. Lewandowski
90+5'
Rodri

Possession

77%Spain

Shots

12Spain

Pass accuracy

60%Spain

Statistics

SpainPoland
Overview
77%Possession23%
12Total Shots5
7Corners1
16Fouls17
Shots
12Total Shots5
5On Target2
7Off Target3
0Blocked0
10Inside Box3
2Outside Box2
Passing
77%Possession23%
707Total Passes215
621Accurate Passes126
88%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
16Fouls17
2Yellow Cards4
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Spain vs Poland

Spain and Poland drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on June 19, 2021.

Goals: Morata (25'), R. Lewandowski (54').

Spain controlled possession (77%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Sevilla in Sevilla.