Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spain vs Norway — Euro Championship 2024

Spain
Spain
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Norway
Norway
3/23/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 1Estadio de Mestalla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Spain59%
×Draw23%
Norway18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain
1.82
Norway
0.88

Spain creates 107% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Spain
2.64
Norway
1.40

allows per match

Spain
0.36
Norway
1.00

finishing

Spain+0.00on par
Norway+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Norway →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Spain or draw
82%
Spain or Norway
77%
Draw or Norway
41%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+
34%
Norway wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals
84%
Spain 2+ goals
54%
Spain 3+ goals
27%
Norway 1+ goals
59%
Norway 2+ goals
22%
Norway 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)
77%
Norway (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Norway away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.64 + Norway defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Norway attack 1.40 + Spain defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Spain scores more
59%
level
23%
Norway scores more
18%

Spain at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Spain 2 – 1 Norway

Spain beat Norway 2-1 in Euro Championship on March 23, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Mestalla in Valencia.