Spain 5–1 Northern Ireland: Result & Stats

Spain

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Northern Ireland

Mikel Oyarzabal 60'

Fabián Ruiz 35'

Pedri 29', 12'

Álvaro Morata 18'

D. Ballard 2'

6/8/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spain65%

×Draw20%

Northern Ireland15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpainExpected goals in this matchNorthern Ireland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.89

Spain

2.08

Northern Ireland

0.89

Spain creates 134% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

2.57

creates per match

1.13

0.64

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Spain

2.57

Northern Ireland

1.13

allows per match

Spain

0.64

Northern Ireland

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain+0.00on par

Northern Ireland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Northern Ireland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Spain or draw

85%

Spain or Northern Ireland

80%

Draw or Northern Ireland

35%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+

40%

Northern Ireland wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals

87%

Spain 2+ goals

61%

Spain 3+ goals

34%

Northern Ireland 1+ goals

59%

Northern Ireland 2+ goals

22%

Northern Ireland 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)

81%

Northern Ireland (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Northern Ireland away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.57 + Northern Ireland defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Northern Ireland attack 1.13 + Spain defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Spain scores more

65%

level

20%

Northern Ireland scores more

15%

Spain at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Lamine Yamal

Spain · F

9.3

Match Events

2'

D. Ballard↳ C. Boyd-Munce

5'

Robin Le Normand

12'

Pedri↳ Nacho

18'

Álvaro Morata↳ Jesús Navas

29'

Pedri↳ Nico Williams

35'

Fabián Ruiz↳ Lamine Yamal

46'

Dani Carvajal← Jesús Navas

46'

Álex Grimaldo← Marc Cucurella

46'

C. Evans← C. Boyd-Munce

46'

J. Thompson← E. Toal

53'

Aymeric Laporte← Nacho

53'

Mikel Oyarzabal← Álvaro Morata

60'

Mikel Oyarzabal↳ Lamine Yamal

61'

Mikel Merino← Pedri

64'

Isaac Price

66'

R. McCausland← C. Bradley

66'

D. Taylor← J. Reid

72'

Joselu← Lamine Yamal

77'

B. Spencer← T. Hume

83'

C. McMenamin← I. Price

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpainNorthern

Overview

79%Possession21%

19Total Shots7

5Corners0

9Fouls8

Shots

19Total Shots7

8On Target3

8Off Target4

3Blocked0

12Inside Box6

7Outside Box1

Passing

79%Possession21%

678Total Passes181

621Accurate Passes122

92%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1