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Spain vs Iceland — Friendlies 2026

Spain
Spain
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Iceland
Iceland
Pablo Sarabia 72', 61'
Yeremi Pino 47'
Álvaro Morata 39' (pen), 36'
3/29/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Abanca-Riazor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spain67%
×Draw20%
Iceland13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain
2.06
Iceland
0.76

Spain creates 171% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 25 away

creates per match

Spain
2.57
Iceland
0.88

allows per match

Spain
0.64
Iceland
1.56

finishing

Spain+0.00on par
Iceland+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Iceland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Spain or draw
87%
Spain or Iceland
80%
Draw or Iceland
33%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+
43%
Iceland wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals
87%
Spain 2+ goals
61%
Spain 3+ goals
34%
Iceland 1+ goals
53%
Iceland 2+ goals
18%
Iceland 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)
84%
Iceland (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Iceland away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.57 + Iceland defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.06

Iceland attack 0.88 + Spain defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Spain scores more
67%
level
20%
Iceland scores more
13%

Spain at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
Álvaro Morata↳ Hugo Guillamón
39'
Álvaro MorataPenalty
47'
Yeremi Pino
58'
Ferran Torres← Álvaro Morata
59'
Pablo Sarabia← Dani Olmo
59'
Marcos Alonso← Jordi Alba
59'
H. Gunnlaugsson← A. Þrándarson
59'
A. Sigurðsson← S. Þórðarson
61'
Pablo Sarabia↳ Marcos Alonso
68'
A. Guðmundsson← J. Þorsteinsson
68'
S. Guðjohnsen← J. Böðvarsson
69'
Gavi← Carlos Soler
72'
Pablo Sarabia↳ Marcos Alonso
81'
Pedri← Azpilicueta

Possession

83%Spain

Shots

14Spain

Statistics

SpainIceland
Overview
83%Possession17%
14Total Shots2
7Corners1
9Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots2
9On Target0
5Off Target2
Passing
83%Possession17%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides3

Friendlies: Spain 5–0 Iceland

Spain beat Iceland 5-0 in Friendlies on March 29, 2022.

Goals: Álvaro Morata (36', 39' pen), Yeremi Pino (47'), Pablo Sarabia (61', 72').

Spain controlled possession (83%) and registered 14 shots to 2.

The match was played at Estadio Abanca-Riazor in La Coruña.