Spain 1–1 Germany: Result & Stats

Spain

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Germany

Mikel Merino 119'

Dani Olmo 51'

F. Wirtz 89'

7/5/2024

Euro Championship · Quarter-finalsStuttgart Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Spain55%

×Draw22%

Germany22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpainExpected goals in this matchGermany

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.11

Spain

1.89

Germany

1.11

Spain creates 70% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

2.64

creates per match

1.86

0.36

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Spain

2.64

Germany

1.86

allows per match

Spain

0.36

Germany

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain+0.00on par

Germany+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Germany →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Spain or draw

78%

Spain or Germany

78%

Draw or Germany

45%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+

32%

Germany wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals

85%

Spain 2+ goals

56%

Spain 3+ goals

29%

Germany 1+ goals

67%

Germany 2+ goals

30%

Germany 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)

71%

Germany (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Germany away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.64 + Germany defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.89

Germany attack 1.86 + Spain defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Spain scores more

55%

level

22%

Germany scores more

22%

Spain at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Dani Olmo

Spain · F

9.0

Match Events

-5'

Nico Schlotterbeck

-5'

Fabián Ruiz

-5'

Deniz Undav

8'

Dani Olmo← Pedri

13'

Antonio Rüdiger

28'

David Raum

29'

Robin Le Normand

46'

Nacho← Robin Le Normand

46'

F. Wirtz← L. Sané

46'

R. Andrich← E. Can

51'

Dani Olmo↳ Lamine Yamal

56'

Robert Andrich

57'

N. Füllkrug← İ. Gündoğan

57'

M. Mittelstädt← D. Raum

63'

Ferran Torres← Lamine Yamal

67'

Toni Kroos

73'

Maximilian Mittelstädt

74'

Ferran Torres

80'

Mikel Oyarzabal← Álvaro Morata

80'

Mikel Merino← Nico Williams

80'

82'

89'

90'

94'

100'

102'

110'

119'

Mikel Merino↳ Dani Olmo

120+5'

Daniel Carvajal

120+5'

Daniel Carvajal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpainGermany

Overview

48%Possession52%

18Total Shots23

1.41Expected Goals (xG)2.15

1Corners5

17Fouls22

Shots

18Total Shots23

6On Target5

9Off Target11

3Blocked7

6Inside Box14

12Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

576Total Passes588

496Accurate Passes498

86%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

-0.51Goals Prevented-0.51

Discipline

17Fouls22

7Yellow Cards8

1Red Cards0

3Offsides2

Euro Championship: Spain 1–1 Germany

Spain and Germany drew 1-1 in Euro Championship on July 5, 2024.

Goals: Dani Olmo (51'), F. Wirtz (89'), Mikel Merino (119').

Germany controlled possession (52%) and registered 23 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stuttgart Arena in Stuttgart.

Spain vs Germany — Euro Championship 2024

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Euro Championship: Spain 1–1 Germany