Spain 4–0 Faroe Islands: Result & Stats

Spain

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Faroe Islands

Paco Alcácer 90+2', 89'

Rodrigo 50', 13'

9/8/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 6Estadio Municipal El Molinón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Spain89%

×Draw9%

Faroe Islands3%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpainExpected goals in this matchFaroe Islands

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.02

0.38

Spain

3.02

Faroe Islands

0.38

Spain creates 695% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

2.64

creates per match

0.40

0.36

allows per match

3.40

creates per match

Spain

2.64

Faroe Islands

0.40

allows per match

Spain

0.36

Faroe Islands

3.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain+0.00on par

Faroe Islands+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Faroe Islands →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–16%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–016%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–012%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Spain or draw

97%

Spain or Faroe Islands

91%

Draw or Faroe Islands

11%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+

71%

Faroe Islands wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals

95%

Spain 2+ goals

80%

Spain 3+ goals

57%

Faroe Islands 1+ goals

32%

Faroe Islands 2+ goals

6%

Faroe Islands 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)

97%

Faroe Islands (draw refunded)

3%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Faroe Islands away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.64 + Faroe Islands defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.02

Faroe Islands attack 0.40 + Spain defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 89%?"

Spain scores more

89%

level

9%

Faroe Islands scores more

3%

Spain at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Thiago Alcântara

Spain · M

9.3

Match Events

13'

Rodrigo↳ Mikel Oyarzabal

44'

Thiago Alcántara

50'

Rodrigo↳ Thiago Alcântara

55'

A. Eriksen← R. Baldvinsson

61'

Paco Alcácer← Mikel Oyarzabal

66'

K. í Bartalsstovu← J. Edmundsson

68'

Pablo Sarabia← Suso

72'

Sergio Ramos

84'

Unai Núñez← Sergio Ramos

87'

M. Egilsson← K. Olsen

89'

Paco Alcácer↳ Thiago Alcântara

90+2'

Paco Alcácer↳ Gayà

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpainFaroe

Overview

70%Possession30%

30Total Shots2

8Corners1

8Fouls12

Shots

30Total Shots2

9On Target2

9Off Target0

12Blocked0

16Inside Box0

14Outside Box2

Passing

70%Possession30%

737Total Passes314

685Accurate Passes251

93%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides0