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Spain vs Egypt — Friendlies 2026

Spain
Spain
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Egypt
Egypt
3/31/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalRCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Spain67%
×Draw19%
Egypt13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain
2.12
Egypt
0.82

Spain creates 159% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

creates per match

Spain
2.57
Egypt
1.00

allows per match

Spain
0.64
Egypt
1.67

finishing

Spain+0.00on par
Egypt+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Egypt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Spain or draw
87%
Spain or Egypt
81%
Draw or Egypt
33%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+
43%
Egypt wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals
88%
Spain 2+ goals
62%
Spain 3+ goals
35%
Egypt 1+ goals
56%
Egypt 2+ goals
20%
Egypt 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)
83%
Egypt (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Egypt away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.57 + Egypt defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Egypt attack 1.00 + Spain defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Spain scores more
67%
level
19%
Egypt scores more
13%

Spain at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
O. ShobeirEgyptEgypt · G
8.6

Match Events

46'
Pedri← C. Soler
46'
Rodri← P. Fornals
46'
Fermín← D. Olmo
46'
V. Munoz← Lamine Yamal
46'
Trezeguet← E. Ashour
62'
J. Garcia← D. Raya
62'
B. Iglesias← F. Torres
65'
I. Issa
68'
H. Hassan← I. Issa
72'
H. Fathy
73'
Y. Pino← A. Barrenetxea
82'
M. Saber← Zizo
84'
H. Fathy
84'
H. Fathy
84'
Y. Ibrahim
85'
H. Abdelmaguid← O. Marmoush
89'
O. Shobeir

Possession

61%Spain

Shots

25Spain

Pass accuracy

52%Spain

Statistics

SpainEgypt
Overview
61%Possession39%
25Total Shots4
11Corners0
11Fouls9
Shots
25Total Shots4
6On Target1
8Off Target2
11Blocked1
18Inside Box0
7Outside Box4
Passing
61%Possession39%
651Total Passes434
595Accurate Passes363
91%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
11Fouls9
0Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Spain 0 – 0 Egypt

Spain and Egypt drew 0-0 in Friendlies on March 31, 2026.

Spain controlled possession (61%) and registered 25 shots to 4.

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.