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Spain vs Czechia — Euro Championship 2024

Spain
Spain
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Czechia
Czechia
Gerard Piqué 87'
6/13/2016Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Group Stage - 1Stadium Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Spain66%
×Draw20%
Czechia14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain
2.07
Czechia
0.83

Spain creates 149% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 10 away

creates per match

Spain
2.64
Czechia
1.30

allows per match

Spain
0.36
Czechia
1.50

finishing

Spain+0.00on par
Czechia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Czechia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Spain or draw
86%
Spain or Czechia
80%
Draw or Czechia
34%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+
41%
Czechia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals
87%
Spain 2+ goals
61%
Spain 3+ goals
34%
Czechia 1+ goals
56%
Czechia 2+ goals
20%
Czechia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)
82%
Czechia (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.36 · 14 matches

Czechia away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.64 + Czechia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.07

Czechia attack 1.30 + Spain defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Spain scores more
66%
level
20%
Czechia scores more
14%

Spain at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Andrés IniestaSpainSpain · M
8.6

Match Events

61'
David Limberský
62'
Aritz Aduriz← Álvaro Morata
70'
Thiago Alcántara← Cesc Fàbregas
75'
David Lafata← Tomáš Necid
82'
Pedro← Nolito
86'
Josef Šural← Theodor Gebre Selassie
87'
Gerard Piqué↳ Andrés Iniesta
88'
David Pavelka← Tomáš Rosický

Possession

72%Spain

Shots

18Spain

Pass accuracy

58%Spain

Statistics

SpainCzechia
Overview
72%Possession28%
18Total Shots6
14Corners3
11Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots6
5On Target3
8Off Target1
5Blocked2
11Inside Box3
7Outside Box3
Passing
72%Possession28%
696Total Passes275
618Accurate Passes177
89%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls12
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
7Offsides1

Euro Championship: Spain 1–0 Czechia

Spain beat Czechia 1-0 in Euro Championship on June 13, 2016.

Goals: Gerard Piqué (87').

Spain controlled possession (72%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadium Municipal in Toulouse.