Spain 7–0 Costa Rica: Result & Stats | World Cup

Spain

FT

7 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Costa Rica

Álvaro Morata 90+2'

Carlos Soler 90'

Gavi 74'

Ferran Torres 54', 31' (pen)

Marco Asensio 21'

Dani Olmo 11'

11/23/2022

World Cup · Group Stage - 1Al Thumama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spain73%

×Draw16%

Costa Rica11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpainExpected goals in this matchCosta Rica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.94

Spain

2.63

Costa Rica

0.94

Spain creates 180% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.50

creates per match

0.75

1.13

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Spain

2.50

Costa Rica

0.75

allows per match

Spain

1.13

Costa Rica

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain+0.00on par

Costa Rica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Costa Rica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Spain or draw

89%

Spain or Costa Rica

84%

Draw or Costa Rica

27%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+

51%

Costa Rica wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals

93%

Spain 2+ goals

73%

Spain 3+ goals

48%

Costa Rica 1+ goals

61%

Costa Rica 2+ goals

24%

Costa Rica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)

87%

Costa Rica (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Costa Rica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.50 + Costa Rica defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Costa Rica attack 0.75 + Spain defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Spain scores more

73%

level

16%

Costa Rica scores more

11%

Spain at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Jordi Alba

Spain · D

8.0

Match Events

11'

Dani Olmo

21'

Marco Asensio↳ Jordi Alba

31'

Ferran TorresPenalty

46'

K. Waston← C. Martínez

54'

Ferran Torres

57'

Carlos Soler← Pedri

57'

Álvaro Morata← Ferran Torres

61'

B. Ruiz← J. Bennette

61'

Á. Zamora← A. Contreras

64'

Koke← Sergio Busquets

64'

Alejandro Balde← Jordi Alba

68'

Francisco Calvo

69'

Nico Williams← Marco Asensio

72'

B. Aguilera← C. Borges

74'

Gavi↳ Álvaro Morata

82'

R. Matarrita← B. Oviedo

90+7'

Joel Campbell

90'

Carlos Soler

90+2'

Álvaro Morata↳ Dani Olmo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpainCosta

Overview

82%Possession18%

17Total Shots0

5Corners0

8Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots0

8On Target0

7Off Target0

2Blocked0

13Inside Box0

4Outside Box0

Passing

82%Possession18%

1045Total Passes230

978Accurate Passes165

94%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls12

0Yellow Cards2

3Offsides7