Spain 3–3 Brazil: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Spain

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Brazil

Rodri 87' (pen), 12' (pen)

Dani Olmo 36'

Lucas Paquetá 90+6' (pen)

Endrick 50'

Rodrygo 40'

3/26/2024

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Estadio Santiago Bernabéu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spain42%

×Draw23%

Brazil34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpainExpected goals in this matchBrazil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.50

Spain

1.69

Brazil

1.50

Spain creates 13% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

2.57

creates per match

2.35

0.64

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Spain

2.57

Brazil

2.35

allows per match

Spain

0.64

Brazil

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain+0.00on par

Brazil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Brazil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Spain or draw

66%

Spain or Brazil

77%

Draw or Brazil

58%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+

22%

Brazil wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals

82%

Spain 2+ goals

50%

Spain 3+ goals

24%

Brazil 1+ goals

78%

Brazil 2+ goals

44%

Brazil 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)

55%

Brazil (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Brazil away — creates 2.35, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.57 + Brazil defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Brazil attack 2.35 + Spain defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spain scores more

42%

level

23%

Brazil scores more

34%

Spain at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Rodri

Spain · M

9.2

Match Events

12'

RodriPenalty

34'

Robin Le Normand

36'

Dani Olmo↳ Lamine Yamal

40'

Rodrygo

42'

Aymeric Laporte

42'

Bruno Guimarães

46'

Endrick← Raphinha

46'

Andreas Pereira← João Gomes

46'

André← Bruno Guimarães

46'

Yan Couto← Danilo

50'

50'

51'

58'

71'

Douglas Luiz← Vinícius Júnior

78'

Endrick

81'

Pau Cubarsí← Robin Le Normand

81'

Mikel Oyarzabal← Álvaro Morata

82'

Galeno← Rodrygo

85'

Andreas Pereira

87'

RodriPenalty

89'

Oihan Sancet← Nico Williams

90+3'

Lucas Beraldo

90+2'

Jesús Navas← Lamine Yamal

90+6'

Lucas PaquetáPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpainBrazil

Overview

59%Possession41%

19Total Shots12

6Corners2

20Fouls16

Shots

19Total Shots12

8On Target6

9Off Target2

2Blocked4

9Inside Box8

10Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

539Total Passes377

497Accurate Passes320

92%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

20Fouls16

3Yellow Cards6

3Offsides1

Friendlies: Spain 3–3 Brazil

Spain and Brazil drew 3-3 in Friendlies on March 26, 2024.

Goals: Rodri (12' pen, 87' pen), Dani Olmo (36'), Rodrygo (40'), Endrick (50'), Lucas Paquetá (90+6' pen).

Spain controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid.

Spain vs Brazil — Friendlies 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Friendlies: Spain 3–3 Brazil