Spain 1–0 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Result & Stats

Spain

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Brais Méndez 78'

11/18/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Spain64%

×Draw23%

Bosnia & Herzegovina14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpainExpected goals in this matchBosnia & Herzegovina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.68

Spain

1.78

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.68

Spain creates 162% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

2.57

creates per match

0.71

0.64

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Spain

2.57

Bosnia & Herzegovina

0.71

allows per match

Spain

0.64

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain+0.00on par

Bosnia & Herzegovina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Bosnia & Herzegovina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Spain or draw

86%

Spain or Bosnia & Herzegovina

77%

Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina

36%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+

37%

Bosnia & Herzegovina wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals

83%

Spain 2+ goals

53%

Spain 3+ goals

26%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 1+ goals

49%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 2+ goals

15%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)

82%

Bosnia & Herzegovina (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Bosnia & Herzegovina away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.57 + Bosnia & Herzegovina defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Bosnia & Herzegovina attack 0.71 + Spain defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Spain scores more

64%

level

23%

Bosnia & Herzegovina scores more

14%

Spain at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

José Luis Gayà

38'

Elvis Saric

51'

Azpilicueta← Jonny Castro

56'

Álvaro Morata

59'

Brais Méndez← Suso

62'

H. Duljević← R. Krunić

64'

Rodrigo← Álvaro Morata

64'

Pablo Fornals← Dani Ceballos

75'

Pau López← Kepa

78'

Brais Méndez

79'

S. Prcić← E. Sarić

81'

R. Bajić← E. Višća

85'

Kenan← E. Džeko

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SpainBosnia

Overview

63%Possession37%

17Total Shots2

11Corners1

11Fouls8

Shots

17Total Shots2

5On Target1

12Off Target1

Passing

63%Possession37%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0