Spain 0–0 Argentina: Result & Stats | World Cup

Spain

AET

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Argentina

F. Torres 106'

7/19/2026

World Cup · FinalMetLife Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Spain51%

×Draw21%

Argentina28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpainExpected goals in this matchArgentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.48

Spain

2.05

Argentina

1.48

Spain creates 39% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

2.71

creates per match

2.40

0.57

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Spain

2.71

Argentina

2.40

allows per match

Spain

0.57

Argentina

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain+0.00on par

Argentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain ↓

Argentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Spain or draw

72%

Spain or Argentina

79%

Draw or Argentina

49%

Winning margin

Spain wins by 2+

29%

Argentina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spain 1+ goals

87%

Spain 2+ goals

61%

Spain 3+ goals

33%

Argentina 1+ goals

77%

Argentina 2+ goals

43%

Argentina 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Spain (draw refunded)

64%

Argentina (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Argentina away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain attack 2.71 + Argentina defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.05

Argentina attack 2.40 + Spain defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Spain scores more

51%

level

21%

Argentina scores more

28%

Spain at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Spain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Emiliano Martínez

Argentina · G

9.7

Match Events

41'

L. Martinez

44'

N. Otamendi← L. Martinez

46'

L. Paredes← N. Gonzalez

52'

L. Paredes

58'

N. Molina← G. Montiel

62'

F. Torres← M. Oyarzabal

62'

Pedri← F. Ruiz

70'

F. Medina← C. Romero

70'

G. Simeone← R. de Paul

75'

N. Williams← A. Baena

75'

82'

90+2'

90+3'

90+3'

99'

99'

E. Garcia← A. Laporte

102'

M. Senesi← J. Alvarez

104'

L. Scaloni

106'

F. Torres↳ N. Williams

111'

A. Mac Allister

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpainArgentina

Overview

65%Possession35%

20Total Shots2

1.94Expected Goals (xG)0.22

9Corners4

21Fouls25

Shots

20Total Shots2

12On Target0

5Off Target1

3Blocked1

9Inside Box1

11Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

852Total Passes463

762Accurate Passes357

89%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves11

1.81Goals Prevented1.81

Discipline

21Fouls25

0Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1