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Spain U21 vs Kosovo U21 — League #850 2026

Spain U21
Spain U21
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kosovo U21
Kosovo U21
P. Garcia 90+4'
G. Garcia 71'
3/31/2026League #850League #850 · Group Stage - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U2162%
×Draw21%
Kosovo U2117%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U21
2.04
Kosovo U21
0.97

Spain U21 creates 110% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Spain U21
3.40
Kosovo U21
1.33

allows per match

Spain U21
0.60
Kosovo U21
0.67

finishing

Spain U21+0.00on par
Kosovo U21+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U21 ↓

Kosovo U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spain U21 or draw
83%
Spain U21 or Kosovo U21
79%
Draw or Kosovo U21
38%

Winning margin

Spain U21 wins by 2+
38%
Kosovo U21 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spain U21 1+ goals
87%
Spain U21 2+ goals
60%
Spain U21 3+ goals
33%
Kosovo U21 1+ goals
62%
Kosovo U21 2+ goals
25%
Kosovo U21 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spain U21 (draw refunded)
78%
Kosovo U21 (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U21 at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Kosovo U21 away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U21 attack 3.40 + Kosovo U21 defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 2.04

Kosovo U21 attack 1.33 + Spain U21 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Spain U21 scores more
62%
level
21%
Kosovo U21 scores more
17%

Spain U21 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Spain U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
F. Ademi
46'
P. Garcia← E. Mayenda
57'
J. Virgili← J. Roca
57'
P. Canales← M. Bernal
66'
C. Andres
71'
G. Garcia↳ P. Garcia
75'
L. Xhylani← L. Parduzi
75'
L. Jashari← A. Bllaca
79'
D. Requena← C. Andres
84'
A. Imeri← H. Berisha
84'
A. Fazlija← F. Ademi
87'
A. Nino← F. Lopez
87'
E. Gashijan← E. Sadriu
90+4'
P. Garcia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spain U21 vs Kosovo U21

Spain U21 beat Kosovo U21 2-0 in League #850 on March 31, 2026.

Goals: G. Garcia (71'), P. Garcia (90+4').