Spain U21 vs Finland U21 — League #850 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Spain U2179%
Finland U217%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Spain U21 creates 297% more chances
Season form · 5 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over65
- Under35
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No54
- Yes46
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Spain U21 ↓
Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Spain U21 at home — creates 3.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches
Finland U21 away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Spain U21 attack 3.40 + Finland U21 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.70
Finland U21 attack 0.75 + Spain U21 defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 79%?"
Spain U21 at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 79% does not mean "Spain U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sample
Poland U21Spain U21
Switzerland U21
Croatia U21
Republic of Ireland U21
Scotland U21
Belgium U21
Northern Ireland U21
Germany U21
England U21
Norway U21
Portugal U21
Kosovo U21
Czech Republic U21
Greece U21
Bulgaria U21
Montenegro U21
Bosnia-Herzegovina U21
Turkey U21
Slovenia U21
Latvia U21
France U21
Netherlands U21
Luxembourg U21
Azerbaijan U21Finland U21
Slovakia U21
Austria U21
Italy U21
Andorra U21
Georgia U21
Romania U21
Sweden U21
Wales U21
Belarus U21
Iceland U21
Moldova U21
Hungary U21
Denmark U21
Israel U21
Estonia U21
Ukraine U21
Faroe Islands U21
Kazakhstan U21
Lithuania U21
North Macedonia U21
Malta U21
Armenia U21
San Marino U21
Cyprus U21
Gibraltar U21If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Spain U21 host Finland U21 on Tuesday, 14 October 2025 at 16:30. The match is part of the League #850 2026/2027 season.
League #850: Spain U21 2–1 Finland U21
Spain U21 beat Finland U21 2-1 in League #850 on October 14, 2025.
Goals: Y. Gasiorowski (65' o.g.), E. Mayenda (90'), G. Garcia (90').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Castalia.