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Spain U20 W vs Netherlands U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Spain U20 W
Spain U20 W
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Netherlands U19 W
Netherlands U19 W
Marisa 80'
Amaya 60'
D. Agote 51', 11'
C. Segura 13', 9'
3/6/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U20 W80%
×Draw11%
Netherlands U19 W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U20 W
3.71
Netherlands U19 W
1.21

Spain U20 W creates 207% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Spain U20 W
4.67
Netherlands U19 W
1.75

allows per match

Spain U20 W
0.67
Netherlands U19 W
2.75

finishing

Spain U20 W+0.00on par
Netherlands U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U20 W ↓

Netherlands U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Spain U20 W or draw
92%
Spain U20 W or Netherlands U19 W
89%
Draw or Netherlands U19 W
20%

Winning margin

Spain U20 W wins by 2+
64%
Netherlands U19 W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Spain U20 W 1+ goals
97%
Spain U20 W 2+ goals
87%
Spain U20 W 3+ goals
69%
Netherlands U19 W 1+ goals
70%
Netherlands U19 W 2+ goals
34%
Netherlands U19 W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spain U20 W (draw refunded)
90%
Netherlands U19 W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U20 W at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Netherlands U19 W away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U20 W attack 4.67 + Netherlands U19 W defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 3.71

Netherlands U19 W attack 1.75 + Spain U20 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Spain U20 W scores more
80%
level
11%
Netherlands U19 W scores more
8%

Spain U20 W at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Spain U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
C. Segura
11'
D. Agote
13'
C. Segura
51'
D. Agote
60'
Amaya
80'
Marisa
Spain
Netherlands
Sonia Bermúdez
Manager: Sonia Bermúdez
Roos Kwakkenbos
Manager: Roos Kwakkenbos

Friendlies Women: Spain U20 W 6–0 Netherlands U19 W

Spain U20 W beat Netherlands U19 W 6-0 in Friendlies Women on March 6, 2026.

Goals: C. Segura (9', 13'), D. Agote (11', 51'), Amaya (60'), Marisa (80').