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Spain U20 W vs Mexico U20 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Spain U20 W
Spain U20 W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Mexico U20 W
Mexico U20 W
C. J. Martinez 37'
A. Alguacil 34'
I. Dorado 32'
N. Sanmartin 17'
N. Munoz 4' (OG)
J. Y. Valadez Alvidrez 62'
3/3/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U20 W83%
×Draw10%
Mexico U20 W7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U20 W
3.55
Mexico U20 W
0.98

Spain U20 W creates 262% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Spain U20 W
4.67
Mexico U20 W
1.29

allows per match

Spain U20 W
0.67
Mexico U20 W
2.43

finishing

Spain U20 W+0.00on par
Mexico U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U20 W ↓

Mexico U20 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Spain U20 W or draw
93%
Spain U20 W or Mexico U20 W
90%
Draw or Mexico U20 W
17%

Winning margin

Spain U20 W wins by 2+
66%
Mexico U20 W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Spain U20 W 1+ goals
97%
Spain U20 W 2+ goals
86%
Spain U20 W 3+ goals
67%
Mexico U20 W 1+ goals
62%
Mexico U20 W 2+ goals
26%
Mexico U20 W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Spain U20 W (draw refunded)
93%
Mexico U20 W (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U20 W at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Mexico U20 W away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U20 W attack 4.67 + Mexico U20 W defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 3.55

Mexico U20 W attack 1.29 + Spain U20 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Spain U20 W scores more
83%
level
10%
Mexico U20 W scores more
7%

Spain U20 W at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Spain U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
N. MunozOwn goal
17'
N. Sanmartin
32'
I. Dorado
34'
A. Alguacil
37'
C. J. Martinez
62'
J. Y. Valadez Alvidrez
Spain
Mexico
Sonia Bermúdez
Manager: Sonia Bermúdez
Doriva Bueno
Manager: Doriva Bueno

Friendlies Women: Spain U20 W 5–1 Mexico U20 W

Spain U20 W beat Mexico U20 W 5-1 in Friendlies Women on March 3, 2026.

Goals: N. Munoz (4' o.g.), N. Sanmartin (17'), I. Dorado (32'), A. Alguacil (34'), C. J. Martinez (37'), J. Y. Valadez Alvidrez (62').