Spain U20 W 3–1 England U20 W: Result & Stats

Spain U20 W

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

England U20 W

2/28/2026

Friendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U20 W77%

×Draw14%

England U20 W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U20 WExpected goals in this matchEngland U20 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.96

0.96

Spain U20 W

2.96

England U20 W

0.96

Spain U20 W creates 208% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

4.67

creates per match

1.25

0.67

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Spain U20 W

4.67

England U20 W

1.25

allows per match

Spain U20 W

0.67

England U20 W

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U20 W+0.00on par

England U20 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U20 W ↓

England U20 W →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–06%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–19%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Spain U20 W or draw

91%

Spain U20 W or England U20 W

86%

Draw or England U20 W

23%

Winning margin

Spain U20 W wins by 2+

57%

England U20 W wins by 2+

Team goals

Spain U20 W 1+ goals

95%

Spain U20 W 2+ goals

79%

Spain U20 W 3+ goals

55%

England U20 W 1+ goals

62%

England U20 W 2+ goals

25%

England U20 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Spain U20 W (draw refunded)

89%

England U20 W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spain U20 W at home — creates 4.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

England U20 W away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spain U20 W attack 4.67 + England U20 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.96

England U20 W attack 1.25 + Spain U20 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Spain U20 W scores more

77%

level

14%

England U20 W scores more

Spain U20 W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Spain U20 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff