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Shenzhen Ruby FC vs Heilongjiang Lava Spring — League One 2018

Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
3/11/2018League OneLeague One · Round 1Shenzhen City Stadium (Shenzhen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC54%
×Draw22%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.90
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.20

Shenzhen Ruby FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 124 away

creates per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.40
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.12

allows per match

Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.27
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
1.40

finishing

Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par
Heilongjiang Lava Spring+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shenzhen Ruby FC ↓

Heilongjiang Lava Spring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shenzhen Ruby FC or draw
76%
Shenzhen Ruby FC or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
78%
Draw or Heilongjiang Lava Spring
46%

Winning margin

Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
31%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
85%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
56%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
29%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 1+ goals
70%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2+ goals
34%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
69%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shenzhen Ruby FC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Heilongjiang Lava Spring away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.40 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 2.40 + Heilongjiang Lava Spring defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Heilongjiang Lava Spring attack 1.12 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
54%
level
22%
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores more
24%

Shenzhen Ruby FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Shenzhen Ruby FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shenzhen Ruby FC 2–2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring

Shenzhen Ruby FC and Heilongjiang Lava Spring drew 2-2 in League One on March 11, 2018.

The match was played at Shenzhen City Stadium (Shenzhen).