Spain U19 W 1–1 USA U19 W: Result & Stats

Spain U19 W

Pens

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

USA U19 W

D. Agote 28'

I. Engle 21'

2/26/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U19 W48%

×Draw25%

USA U19 W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19 WExpected goals in this matchUSA U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.17

Spain U19 W

1.61

USA U19 W

1.17

Spain U19 W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

2.33

creates per match

1.67

0.67

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Spain U19 W

2.33

USA U19 W

1.67

allows per match

Spain U19 W

0.67

USA U19 W

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19 W+0.00on par

USA U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 W ↓

USA U19 W →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spain U19 W or draw

72%

Spain U19 W or USA U19 W

75%

Draw or USA U19 W

52%

Winning margin

Spain U19 W wins by 2+

25%

USA U19 W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spain U19 W 1+ goals

80%

Spain U19 W 2+ goals

48%

Spain U19 W 3+ goals

22%

USA U19 W 1+ goals

69%

USA U19 W 2+ goals

33%

USA U19 W 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 W (draw refunded)

63%

USA U19 W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

USA U19 W away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 W attack 2.33 + USA U19 W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.61

USA U19 W attack 1.67 + Spain U19 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spain U19 W scores more

48%

level

25%

USA U19 W scores more

28%

Spain U19 W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spain U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

I. Engle

28'

D. Agote

Spain

USA

⚽

⚽

Spain U19 W substitutes

1Lopez2Gonzalez3Llorella4Galvez6Cubo8Folgado13Arrula15Ortega17Moreno18Santos19Cerrato21Segura22Casquero

USA U19 W substitutes

2Munson7Villarreal8Klinger12Smith13Croone14Robinson17Joseph18Graham20Daubert

Friendlies Women: Spain U19 W 1–1 USA U19 W

Spain U19 W and USA U19 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on February 26, 2025.

Goals: I. Engle (21'), D. Agote (28').

Spain U19 W vs USA U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Spain U19 W 1–1 USA U19 W