Spain U19 W 0–0 France U19 W: Result & Stats

Spain U19 W

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

France U19 W

10/28/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Spain U19 W74%

×Draw17%

France U19 W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19 WExpected goals in this matchFrance U19 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.67

Spain U19 W

2.33

France U19 W

0.67

Spain U19 W creates 248% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

0.67

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Spain U19 W

2.33

France U19 W

0.67

allows per match

Spain U19 W

0.67

France U19 W

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19 W+0.00on par

France U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 W ↓

France U19 W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Spain U19 W or draw

91%

Spain U19 W or France U19 W

83%

Draw or France U19 W

26%

Winning margin

Spain U19 W wins by 2+

51%

France U19 W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Spain U19 W 1+ goals

90%

Spain U19 W 2+ goals

67%

Spain U19 W 3+ goals

41%

France U19 W 1+ goals

49%

France U19 W 2+ goals

15%

France U19 W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 W (draw refunded)

89%

France U19 W (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 W at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

France U19 W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 W attack 2.33 + France U19 W defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.33

France U19 W attack 0.67 + Spain U19 W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Spain U19 W scores more

74%

level

17%

France U19 W scores more

9%

Spain U19 W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Spain U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff