Spain U19 4–0 Ukraine U19: Result & Stats

Spain U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Ukraine U19

Victor Barberá 59'

Dani Rodríguez 22'

Ángel Alarcón 7'

César Palacios 3'

3/28/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 5Estadio Municipal Villanovense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Spain U1958%

×Draw20%

Ukraine U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spain U19Expected goals in this matchUkraine U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.31

Spain U19

2.25

Ukraine U19

1.31

Spain U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 11 away

3.31

creates per match

2.00

0.63

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Spain U19

3.31

Ukraine U19

2.00

allows per match

Spain U19

0.63

Ukraine U19

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par

Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Ukraine U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw

78%

Spain U19 or Ukraine U19

80%

Draw or Ukraine U19

42%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+

36%

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals

89%

Spain U19 2+ goals

65%

Spain U19 3+ goals

39%

Ukraine U19 1+ goals

73%

Ukraine U19 2+ goals

38%

Ukraine U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)

73%

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Ukraine U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 3.31 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ukraine U19 attack 2.00 + Spain U19 defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Spain U19 scores more

58%

level

20%

Ukraine U19 scores more

22%

Spain U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

César Palacios

7'

Ángel Alarcón

10'

D. Rodriguez

22'

Dani Rodríguez

28'

M. A. Moran

32'

O. D. Pushkarov

45'

O. Rosputko

46'

Dani Pérez← Manuel Ángel

46'

Gonzalo García← Dani Rodríguez

59'

Victor Barberá

61'

A. Glushchenko← I. Losenko

61'

D. Chernysh← A. Tsarenko

61'

V. Kharabara← A. Kitela

67'

Félix Garreta← Yarek Gasiorowski

71'

Edgar Pujol← Ángel Alarcón

80'

Alejandro Calvo← César Palacios

83'

A. Benedyuk← O. Rosputko

83'

M. Aleksandrov← O. Pushkarev

Spain

Ukraine

12

5

3

22

4

2

▼

Kitela

16

▼

Losenko

13

▼

Pushkarev

7

▼

Tsarenko

10

Sigeev

20

▼

1

14

3

2

5

▼

Gasiorows

8

▼

Ángel

20

⚽

▼

Palacios

17

⚽

▼

Rodríguez

11

⚽

▼

Alarcón

10

Akhomach

9

⚽

Barberá

Manager: Santi

46'▲Dani Pérez←▼Manuel Ángel

46'▲Gonzalo García←▼Dani Rodríguez

67'▲Félix Garreta←▼Yarek Gasiorowski

71'▲Edgar Pujol←▼Ángel Alarcón

80'▲Alejandro Calvo←▼César Palacios

Spain U19 substitutes

16Pérez7García15Garreta4Pujol18Calvo13Alemán19Bravo

Manager: S. Nagornyak

61'▲A. Glushchenko←▼I. Losenko

61'▲D. Chernysh←▼A. Tsarenko

61'▲V. Kharabara←▼A. Kitela

83'▲A. Benedyuk←▼O. Rosputko

83'▲M. Aleksandrov←▼O. Pushkarev

Ukraine U19 substitutes

21Glushchenko18Chernysh11Kharabara8Benedyuk19Aleksandrov1Gereta