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Spain U19 vs Norway U19 — Friendlies 2018

Spain U19
Spain U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Norway U19
Norway U19
H. Lopez 53'
J. Gaitan 12'
2/19/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Spain U1966%
×Draw18%
Norway U1916%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spain U19
2.39
Norway U19
1.08

Spain U19 creates 121% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Spain U19
3.00
Norway U19
1.67

allows per match

Spain U19
0.50
Norway U19
1.78

finishing

Spain U19+0.00on par
Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spain U19 ↓

Norway U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Spain U19 or draw
84%
Spain U19 or Norway U19
82%
Draw or Norway U19
34%

Winning margin

Spain U19 wins by 2+
44%
Norway U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Spain U19 1+ goals
91%
Spain U19 2+ goals
69%
Spain U19 3+ goals
42%
Norway U19 1+ goals
66%
Norway U19 2+ goals
29%
Norway U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spain U19 (draw refunded)
81%
Norway U19 (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spain U19 at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spain U19 attack 3.00 + Norway U19 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.39

Norway U19 attack 1.67 + Spain U19 defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Spain U19 scores more
66%
level
18%
Norway U19 scores more
16%

Spain U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Spain U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
J. Gaitan
53'
H. Lopez
Spain
Norway
Francisco Gallardo León
Manager: Francisco Gallardo León
Even Sel
Manager: Even Sel

Friendlies: Spain U19 2–0 Norway U19

Spain U19 beat Norway U19 2-0 in Friendlies on February 19, 2026.

Goals: J. Gaitan (12'), H. Lopez (53').